Vasco da Gama 3-3 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 22 May 2024

📅22/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.59
Over 2.5
38%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
4.87
6+ Goals
7%
28.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.45 — our 37% vs market 34.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.41
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.15
X/1
17%
4.72
X/2
13%
5.93
X/X
18%
3.88
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
16%
4.71
2/X
6%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
41%
-4.6pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.7pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.0pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.3pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.3pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
0.51/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/0.83
-66% / +119% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
23.5 Crosses 7.0
4.1 Yellow Cards 4.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fortaleza
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.03 xG 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
320 Passes 330
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.05.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRK
19.10.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
27.05.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 2-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
11.02.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
20.11.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
13.10.2019 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
3-3
AWAY Fortaleza
2.36 xG 1.73
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 10
287 Passes 317
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama and Fortaleza couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 49% of the ball to Fortaleza's 51%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 2.36 to 1.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Vasco da Gama and 0.83 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Fortaleza?

Vasco da Gama 3-3 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Cup on 22/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 36%, draw 29%, Fortaleza 34%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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