Leon 1-1 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 22 Jul 2024

Leon
1-1 HT 0-1
Necaxa
📅22/07/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.63
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.32
6+ Goals
11%
12.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.8pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 39%
+4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +4%
1.43/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.04
+7% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 79%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
18.5 Crosses 17.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Necaxa
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.66 xG 0.84
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
389 Passes 217
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 1-2 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
03.09.2023 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
17.01.2023 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
03.09.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 3-2 HT 3-0 Leon Leon MEK
26.02.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
07.11.2021 Leon Leon 3-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
1-1
AWAY Necaxa
1.73 xG 0.37
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
353 Passes 140
82% Pass Accuracy 63%
25 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Leon vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon and Necaxa shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Leon had 66% of the ball to Necaxa's 34%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 1.73 to 0.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Leon and 1.00 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Leon vs Necaxa?

Leon 1-1 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 22/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Leon 37%, draw 28%, Necaxa 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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