Pumas UNAM 2-0 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 22 Jul 2024

📅22/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.14
6+ Goals
10%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 28% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
-0.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.8pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 31%
+12% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +18%
1.60/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.63
+46% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
19.8 Crosses 14.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Pachuca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.91 xG 1.23
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
210 Passes 357
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
29.01.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-1 HT 2-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
17.07.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
19.03.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-2 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
25.07.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
01.05.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
2-0
AWAY Pachuca
1.95 xG 0.77
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
212 Passes 394
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM got the better of Pachuca 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pumas UNAM as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 38% of the ball to Pachuca's 62%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.95 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pumas UNAM and 0.67 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?

Pumas UNAM 2-0 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 22/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 47%, draw 25%, Pachuca 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pumas UNAM), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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