Pumas UNAM 3-1 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 29 Jan 2024

Pumas UNAM
3-1 HT 2-1
Pachuca
📅29/01/2024 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
21%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 31% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.8
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.45
X/1
22%
4.49
X/2
8%
6.91
X/X
19%
4.61
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
7%
5.12
2/X
5%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
46%
+4.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
21%
Away Win
27%
-6.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pumas UNAM v Pachuca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 31%
+11% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +19%
1.64/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.68
+42% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
293 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 77%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
19.9 Crosses 14.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Pachuca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.04 xG 1.39
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
221 Passes 327
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.07.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
19.03.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-2 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
25.07.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 0-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
01.05.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
31.10.2021 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
04.04.2021 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-2 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK

Pumas UNAM 3-1 Pachuca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
3-1
AWAY Pachuca
1.14 xG 1.47
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 26
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
269 Passes 343
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
11 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 24
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM beat Pachuca 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Pumas UNAM as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 45% of the ball to Pachuca's 55%, shots finished 8-26, expected goals 1.14 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.00 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?

Pumas UNAM 3-1 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 29/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 50%, draw 29%, Pachuca 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pumas UNAM) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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