Atlas 2-1 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 29 Jan 2024

📅29/01/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.68
Over 2.5
37%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.9
No
62%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.71
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
4.18
6+ Goals
8%
20.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.71 — our 37% vs market 30.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.63
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.05
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
4.17
X/2
10%
7.61
X/X
11%
4.21
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
13%
6.14
2/X
6%
14.7
Value flag · X/1 at 4.17 — our 23% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.5pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.0pp
38%
BTTS Yes
49%
-10.4pp
62%
BTTS No
51%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -16%
1.29/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.39
-33% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
328 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 77%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
21.9 Crosses 17.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.13 xG 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
352 Passes 277
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-2 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
10.04.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 1-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
17.08.2022 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
12.03.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-2 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
01.08.2021 Atlas Atlas 2-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
07.03.2021 Atlas Atlas 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
2-1
AWAY FC Juarez
1.50 xG 0.84
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 10
287 Passes 346
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 33
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atlas vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlas squeezed past FC Juarez 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atlas as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atlas had 46% of the ball to FC Juarez's 54%, shots finished 16-17, expected goals 1.50 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlas had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atlas and 0.67 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Atlas vs FC Juarez?

Atlas 2-1 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 29/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlas win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Atlas 47%, draw 25%, FC Juarez 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atlas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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