Gwangju 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 22 Jul 2025

📅22/07/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
36%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.27
2-3 Goals
35%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.77
6+ Goals
11%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 33% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.08
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.0
X/1
13%
5.03
X/2
12%
6.84
X/X
14%
4.58
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
16%
4.95
2/X
5%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
44%
-7.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
36%
Away Win
29%
+7.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.2pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gwangju EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimcheon Sangmu EU Bookmakers 32%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
0.41/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.63
-32% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
333 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 78%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
14.8 Crosses 20.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gwangju
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gimcheon Sangmu
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.83 xG 1.58
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
343 Passes 394
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.05.2025 Gwangju Gwangju 1-0 HT 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
16.03.2025 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 0-0 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
28.09.2024 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 2-0 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
15.06.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 2-0 HT 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOK
06.04.2024 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 2-1 HT 1-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
25.10.2020 Gwangju Gwangju 0-1 HT 0-1 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gwangju
1-1
AWAY Gimcheon Sangmu
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
336 Passes 329
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
7 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gwangju vs Gimcheon Sangmu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gwangju and Gimcheon Sangmu shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Gwangju had 50% of the ball to Gimcheon Sangmu's 50%, shots finished 9-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gimcheon Sangmu led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Gwangju and 0.83 for Gimcheon Sangmu.

What was the final score of Gwangju vs Gimcheon Sangmu?

Gwangju 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu in the South Kore - K League Classic on 22/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gwangju vs Gimcheon Sangmu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gwangju win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Gwangju 36%, draw 28%, Gimcheon Sangmu 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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