Gimcheon Sangmu 2-0 Gwangju — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.36
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.52
6+ Goals
8%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 30% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.92
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.05
X/1
21%
4.72
X/2
11%
6.83
X/X
11%
4.63
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
9%
4.9
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.7pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gimcheon Sangmu EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Gwangju EU Bookmakers 32%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
2.29/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.45/0.54
+55% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
7.0 Crosses 22.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gimcheon Sangmu
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Gwangju
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.18 xG 0.56
50% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
332 Passes 296
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.06.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 2-0 HT 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOK
06.04.2024 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 2-1 HT 1-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
25.10.2020 Gwangju Gwangju 0-1 HT 0-1 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
15.09.2020 Gwangju Gwangju 0-1 HT 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
23.05.2020 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 1-0 HT 1-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
22.10.2017 Gwangju Gwangju 1-0 HT 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gimcheon Sangmu
2-0
AWAY Gwangju
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
303 Passes 422
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gimcheon Sangmu vs Gwangju
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gimcheon Sangmu saw off Gwangju 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gimcheon Sangmu as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Gimcheon Sangmu had 45% of the ball to Gwangju's 55%, shots finished 11-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gimcheon Sangmu had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gimcheon Sangmu and 0.67 for Gwangju.

What was the final score of Gimcheon Sangmu vs Gwangju?

Gimcheon Sangmu 2-0 Gwangju in the South Kore - K League Classic on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gimcheon Sangmu vs Gwangju?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gimcheon Sangmu 43%, draw 28%, Gwangju 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gimcheon Sangmu), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gimcheon Sangmu) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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