Gwangju 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 5 May 2025

📅05/05/2025 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
19%
4.56
6+ Goals
8%
23.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.84
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.6
X/1
8%
5.44
X/2
14%
5.8
X/X
12%
4.06
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
12%
4.23
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+1.5pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.1pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gwangju EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimcheon Sangmu EU Bookmakers 37%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +15%
0.83/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.12
-8% / +94% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / -1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
13.4 Crosses 18.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gwangju
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Gimcheon Sangmu
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.62 xG 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
326 Passes 378
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2025 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 0-0 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
28.09.2024 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 2-0 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
15.06.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 2-0 HT 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOK
06.04.2024 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 2-1 HT 1-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
25.10.2020 Gwangju Gwangju 0-1 HT 0-1 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
15.09.2020 Gwangju Gwangju 0-1 HT 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gwangju
1-0
AWAY Gimcheon Sangmu
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 22
1 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 13
311 Passes 442
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
4 Crosses 44
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gwangju vs Gimcheon Sangmu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gwangju nicked a narrow win over Gimcheon Sangmu 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Gwangju found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Gwangju had 40% of the ball to Gimcheon Sangmu's 60%, shots finished 6-22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gimcheon Sangmu led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Gwangju and 1.00 for Gimcheon Sangmu.

What was the final score of Gwangju vs Gimcheon Sangmu?

Gwangju 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu in the South Kore - K League Classic on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gwangju vs Gimcheon Sangmu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gwangju win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Gwangju 39%, draw 28%, Gimcheon Sangmu 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gwangju), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gwangju) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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