Deportivo Recoleta 3-1 Sportivo Ameliano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 22 Jul 2025

📅22/07/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.99
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
32%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.52
Over 2.5
37%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
3%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
30%
+7.3pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.5pp
33%
Away Win
40%
-7.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.3pp
37%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-5.1pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Recoleta EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano EU Bookmakers 45%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
0.82/2.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/0.99
-27% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +7%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
305 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Recoleta
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2025 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 1-2 HT 0-1 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta PAR
01.03.2025 Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 1-1 HT 0-0 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Recoleta
3-1
AWAY Sportivo Ameliano
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Recoleta saw off Sportivo Ameliano 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 31% / 33%) promised a tight game; Deportivo Recoleta found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Recoleta had 66% of the ball to Sportivo Ameliano's 34%, shots finished 14-7.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Deportivo Recoleta had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Deportivo Recoleta and 1.00 for Sportivo Ameliano.

What was the final score of Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano?

Deportivo Recoleta 3-1 Sportivo Ameliano in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 22/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Recoleta win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Recoleta 37%, draw 31%, Sportivo Ameliano 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Recoleta) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Recoleta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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