Fortaleza 3-1 Rosario Central — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 22 Aug 2024

📅22/08/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.48
Over 2.5
45%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.44
No
60%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.17
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
5.77
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.21
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
18.4
X/1
27%
3.45
X/2
7%
10.4
X/X
11%
3.93
2/1
8%
32.0
2/2
9%
9.99
2/X
5%
19.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
57%
+1.3pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.7pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
64%
-8.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
36%
+8.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
37%
+3.5pp
60%
BTTS No
63%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Rosario Central EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -45%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Rosario Central
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
234 Passes 291
71% Pass Accuracy 74%
15.08.2024 Rosario Central Rosario Central 1-1 HT 1-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
3-1
AWAY Rosario Central
1.37 xG 0.80
59% Ball Possession 41%
9 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
351 Passes 210
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Rosario Central
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza saw off Rosario Central 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fortaleza as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortaleza had 59% of the ball to Rosario Central's 41%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 1.37 to 0.80.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Rosario Central?

Fortaleza 3-1 Rosario Central in the Copa Sudamericana on 22/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Rosario Central?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 58%, draw 22%, Rosario Central 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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