Lanus 3-1 LDU Quito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 22 Aug 2024

📅22/08/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.96
No
46%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.63
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.47
6+ Goals
11%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.65
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.9
X/1
15%
4.06
X/2
7%
7.53
X/X
13%
4.24
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
28.0
2/2
13%
6.24
2/X
7%
15.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-5.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+5.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.4pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lanus EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY LDU Quito EU Bookmakers 28%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
3.01/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/3.31
+91% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -69%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
349 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
Crosses 10.3
Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lanus
1W-1D-1L
AWAY LDU Quito
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.69 xG 1.19
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
151 Passes 347
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 36
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.08.2024 LDU Quito LDU Quito 1-2 HT 1-2 Lanus Lanus CSA
02.10.2009 Lanus Lanus 1-1 HT 0-0 LDU Quito LDU Quito CON CSA
25.09.2009 LDU Quito LDU Quito 4-0 HT 3-0 Lanus Lanus CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lanus
3-1
AWAY LDU Quito
2.20 xG 1.37
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
251 Passes 390
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lanus vs LDU Quito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lanus beat LDU Quito 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lanus as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lanus had 41% of the ball to LDU Quito's 59%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.20 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lanus and 2.00 for LDU Quito.

What was the final score of Lanus vs LDU Quito?

Lanus 3-1 LDU Quito in the Copa Sudamericana on 22/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lanus vs LDU Quito?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lanus win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lanus 47%, draw 28%, LDU Quito 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lanus), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lanus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
CSA More Copa Sudamericana
22 Aug 2024
01:00 Fortaleza vs Rosario Central Analysis →
03:30 Independiente Medellin vs Palestino Analysis →