Chaves 1-1 Felgueiras 1932 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 22 Aug 2025

📅22/08/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.71
Over
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.67
2-3
41%
1.69
4-5
20%
3.85
6+
8%
18.05
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.67 — our 31% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.2pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.7pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chaves EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Felgueiras 1932 EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.39/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.49
-14% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
317 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.7 Crosses 10.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chaves
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Felgueiras 1932
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.16 xG 0.53
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
258 Passes 86
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
15.02.2025 Chaves Chaves 2-0 HT 0-0 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 POR2
14.09.2024 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 1-2 HT 1-1 Chaves Chaves POR2
25.09.2021 Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932 2-0 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chaves
1-1
AWAY Felgueiras 1932
1.43 xG 1.26
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 4
1 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 5
317 Passes 136
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chaves vs Felgueiras 1932
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chaves and Felgueiras 1932 couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Chaves at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Chaves had 50% of the ball to Felgueiras 1932's 50%, shots finished 8-4, expected goals 1.43 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Chaves had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Chaves and 1.00 for Felgueiras 1932.

What was the final score of Chaves vs Felgueiras 1932?

Chaves 1-1 Felgueiras 1932 in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 22/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chaves vs Felgueiras 1932?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Chaves 43%, draw 25%, Felgueiras 1932 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Chaves) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chaves) ✓ Under 2.5
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