Derby County vs Cardiff City Prediction, Probabilities & Odds — England - Championship, 22 Aug 2026

Derby County
vs
Cardiff City
📅22/08/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
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England - Championship – 2026/2027

Derby County vs Cardiff City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
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Both Teams to Score
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Total Goals
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STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Derby County v Cardiff City — Team-Based Signals

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iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
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Team-Based Signals — members only
The why behind every prediction: how each side performs against the bookmaker, expected goals, attack & defence versus the league, and the on-pitch signals below.
  • Season & Recent Form vs Market
  • Expected Goals — scored and conceded
  • Attack & Defense vs League Average
  • Possession · Total Shots · Shots on Target
  • Corners · Passes · Box Touches · Crosses · Cards
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Derby County vs Cardiff City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Cardiff City
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.92 xG 1.31
57% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
395 Passes 272
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.01.2025 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-1 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
14.09.2024 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 1-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
07.05.2022 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
01.03.2022 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
02.03.2021 Cardiff City Cardiff City 4-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
28.10.2020 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 1-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
PREVIEW Derby County vs Cardiff City
IDDAAKOLIK MATCH PREVIEW

Derby County hold a modest edge on our numbers — a lean, not a lock. The market agrees emphatically — Derby County at just 1.92, about 52%.

Derby County have won 4 of their last 5 home league games.

Looking at the history: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff City lead the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Derby County and 1.50 for Cardiff City.

Derby County vs Cardiff City Kick-off Time

Derby County play Cardiff City in the England - Championship on 22/08/2026, kick-off 17:00 (Istanbul · GMT+3).

Derby County vs Cardiff City Match Prediction & Odds

Our model's prediction for Derby County vs Cardiff City is a Derby County win at about 46% probability, priced 1.92 at EU bookmakers. The full match-result split is Derby County 46%, draw 25%, Cardiff City 29%. These are probability estimates, not certainties — the most likely outcome still loses much of the time.

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