Cardiff City vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Cardiff City v Derby County — Team-Based Signals
Cardiff City vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Cardiff City
İNCL
1-0
HT 0-0
Derby County
İNCL
4-0
HT 1-0
Derby County
İNCL
1-1
HT 1-0
Cardiff City
İNCL
2-1
HT 1-1
Derby County
İNCL
Cardiff City 2-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics
Cardiff City nicked a narrow win over Derby County 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Cardiff City as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Cardiff City had 47% of the ball to Derby County's 53%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.27 to 1.21.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff City had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cardiff City and 0.50 for Derby County.
What was the final score of Cardiff City vs Derby County?
Cardiff City 2-1 Derby County in the England - Championship on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Cardiff City vs Derby County?
Before kick-off our model rated a Cardiff City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cardiff City 43%, draw 27%, Derby County 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cardiff City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.