Derby County 1-0 Cardiff City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 14 Sep 2024

Derby County
1-0 HT 1-0
Cardiff City
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs Cardiff City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.69
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.36
6+ Goals
8%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 32% vs market 31.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.2
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
14.15
X/1
16%
4.6
X/2
7%
6.14
X/X
13%
4.2
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
16%
4.78
2/X
5%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.2pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.6pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Cardiff City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +23%
1.26/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.27
-9% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
324 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 71%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
18.4 Crosses 16.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Derby County vs Cardiff City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Cardiff City
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.89 xG 1.56
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
483 Passes 256
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.05.2022 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
01.03.2022 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
02.03.2021 Cardiff City Cardiff City 4-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
28.10.2020 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 1-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
14.07.2020 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-1 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
13.09.2019 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 1-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL

Derby County 1-0 Cardiff City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
1-0
AWAY Cardiff City
1.49 xG 0.34
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
180 Passes 385
69% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Cardiff City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County edged past Cardiff City 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Derby County as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Derby County had 36% of the ball to Cardiff City's 64%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.49 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff City led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Derby County and 1.67 for Cardiff City.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Cardiff City?

Derby County 1-0 Cardiff City in the England - Championship on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Cardiff City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Derby County 42%, draw 29%, Cardiff City 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
14 Sep 2024
14:30 Millwall vs Luton Town Analysis →
14:30 Leeds United vs Burnley Analysis →
14:30 Oxford United vs Stoke City Analysis →
17:00 Blackburn Rovers vs Bristol City Analysis →
17:00 Middlesbrough vs Preston North End Analysis →
17:00 Swansea City vs Norwich City Analysis →