Varbergs 0-1 IK Brage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 22 Sep 2024

Varbergs
0-1 HT 0-0
IK Brage
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Sweden - Superettan – 2024

Varbergs vs IK Brage Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
33%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.18
Over 2.5
44%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.55
No
53%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
4.3
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
8%
9.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.3 — our 32% vs market 18.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.15
1/2
6%
23.6
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1 EV+ ✗
21%
6.41
X/2
11%
5.1
X/X
15%
5.35
2/1
5%
28.5
2/2
16%
3.03
2/X
5%
12.95
Value flag · X/1 at 6.41 — our 21% vs market 11.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
33%
+9.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.0pp
33%
Away Win
42%
-8.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
42%
+13.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
58%
-13.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.4pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Varbergs v IK Brage — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varbergs EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY IK Brage EU Bookmakers 46%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.22/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.09
-17% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
311 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Varbergs vs IK Brage Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varbergs
0W-0D-1L
AWAY IK Brage
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
The Meetings
01.04.2024 IK Brage IK Brage 1-0 HT 1-0 Varbergs Varbergs İSÇ2
POST-MATCH Varbergs vs IK Brage
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IK Brage nicked a narrow win over Varbergs 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Varbergs at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

What was the final score of Varbergs vs IK Brage?

Varbergs 0-1 IK Brage in the Sweden - Superettan on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varbergs vs IK Brage?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varbergs win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Varbergs 42%, draw 24%, IK Brage 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Varbergs) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Varbergs) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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