Mantova 1-0 Cittadella — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.33
Draw
34%
3.04
Away
23%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.68
Over 2.5
36%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.22
6+ Goals
9%
20.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 35% vs market 30.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.49
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
15%
5.08
X/2
7%
5.99
X/X
19%
4.01
2/1
6%
30.5
2/2
9%
4.4
2/X
8%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
39%
+3.7pp
34%
Draw
30%
+4.1pp
23%
Away Win
31%
-7.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
56%
+8.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
44%
-8.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.4pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mantova EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Cittadella EU Bookmakers 34%
+19% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
0.78/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.17
+44% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
7.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
12.5 Crosses 23.3
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mantova
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Cittadella
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
3 Corners 3
24.04.2010 Cittadella Cittadella 6-0 HT 4-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
30.11.2009 Mantova Mantova 1-3 HT 1-1 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
14.02.2009 Mantova Mantova 2-1 HT 0-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
19.09.2008 Cittadella Cittadella 0-2 HT 0-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mantova
1-0
AWAY Cittadella
2.35 xG 0.63
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 4
413 Passes 227
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 20
10 Crosses 35
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mantova vs Cittadella
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mantova nicked a narrow win over Cittadella 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mantova as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Mantova had 61% of the ball to Cittadella's 39%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.35 to 0.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Mantova's control.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Mantova and 2.50 for Cittadella.

What was the final score of Mantova vs Cittadella?

Mantova 1-0 Cittadella in the Italy - Serie B on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mantova vs Cittadella?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mantova win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mantova 43%, draw 34%, Cittadella 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mantova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mantova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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