Spezia 4-2 Carrarese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.71
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.32
6+ Goals
10%
21.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.5
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
16%
4.03
X/2
6%
8.29
X/X
12%
4.24
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
15%
6.85
2/X
8%
15.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-2.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+2.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Carrarese EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -39% / -39%
1.37/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.38/1.85
-21% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -54%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
372 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
24.4 Crosses 20.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
4-2
AWAY Carrarese
3.40 xG 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 12
11 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 5
241 Passes 208
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
33 Box Touches 20
27 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Carrarese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia got the better of Carrarese 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Spezia as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Spezia had 52% of the ball to Carrarese's 48%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 3.40 to 0.83.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Carrarese?

Spezia 4-2 Carrarese in the Italy - Serie B on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Carrarese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Spezia 48%, draw 27%, Carrarese 26%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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