Elversberg 1-3 Ulm 1846 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 22 Sep 2024

Elversberg
1-3 HT 0-1
Ulm 1846
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Elversberg vs Ulm 1846 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
32%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.03
Over 2.5
56%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.68
No
40%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.87
2-3 Goals
35%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
29%
3.18
6+ Goals
14%
10.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.18 — our 29% vs market 25.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.36
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.8
X/1
10%
4.25
X/2
11%
8.49
X/X
10%
5.26
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.3
2/2
15%
6.16
2/X
9%
14.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
52%
-9.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+8.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
45%
-1.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
55%
+1.6pp
60%
BTTS Yes
56%
+4.6pp
40%
BTTS No
44%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Elversberg v Ulm 1846 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elversberg EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 27%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -48% / -48%
1.39/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/0.62
+10% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +64%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
365 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.0
21.5 Crosses 17.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Elversberg vs Ulm 1846 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elversberg
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Ulm 1846
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.12.2021 Elversberg Elversberg 1-0 HT 1-0 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 ALMBÖL
24.08.2021 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 4-2 HT 3-1 Elversberg Elversberg ALMBÖL
06.02.2021 Elversberg Elversberg 0-2 HT 0-0 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 ALMBÖL
05.09.2020 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 2-0 HT 1-0 Elversberg Elversberg ALMBÖL
30.11.2019 Elversberg Elversberg 1-0 HT 1-0 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 ALMBÖL
12.03.2019 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 1-0 HT 0-0 Elversberg Elversberg ALMBÖL

Elversberg 1-3 Ulm 1846 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elversberg
1-3
AWAY Ulm 1846
2.98 xG 1.79
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 8
392 Passes 213
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
38 Box Touches 29
28 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Elversberg vs Ulm 1846
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ulm 1846 beat Elversberg 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Elversberg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Elversberg had 61% of the ball to Ulm 1846's 39%, shots finished 20-20, expected goals 2.98 to 1.79 — the balance of chances actually favoured Elversberg.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ulm 1846 led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Elversberg and 1.50 for Ulm 1846.

What was the final score of Elversberg vs Ulm 1846?

Elversberg 1-3 Ulm 1846 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elversberg vs Ulm 1846?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elversberg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Elversberg 42%, draw 26%, Ulm 1846 32%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Elversberg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Elversberg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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