Al Ahli FC Dubai 5-4 Al Wahda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UAE - League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.76
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.82
6+ Goals
13%
7.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
52%
-1.5pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.1pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.7pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli FC Dubai EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Wahda EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +24%
1.91/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.52
+23% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +25%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
364 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 78%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
18.4 Crosses 17.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli FC Dubai
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Al Wahda
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.36 xG 1.30
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
268 Passes 337
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.03.2024 Al Wahda Al Wahda 3-3 HT 0-1 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai BAE
29.09.2023 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai 3-1 HT 2-1 Al Wahda Al Wahda BAE
10.02.2023 Al Wahda Al Wahda 1-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai BAE
16.09.2022 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai 2-1 HT 1-1 Al Wahda Al Wahda BAE
04.03.2022 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai 1-3 HT 1-1 Al Wahda Al Wahda BAE
23.09.2021 Al Wahda Al Wahda 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai BAE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahli FC Dubai
5-4
AWAY Al Wahda
2.18 xG 1.46
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
342 Passes 279
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Al Ahli FC Dubai vs Al Wahda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli FC Dubai squeezed past Al Wahda 5-4. Half-time: 3-2. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Ahli FC Dubai as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 5-4 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Al Ahli FC Dubai had 52% of the ball to Al Wahda's 48%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.18 to 1.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahli FC Dubai had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Al Ahli FC Dubai and 1.50 for Al Wahda.

What was the final score of Al Ahli FC Dubai vs Al Wahda?

Al Ahli FC Dubai 5-4 Al Wahda in the UAE - League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli FC Dubai vs Al Wahda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahli FC Dubai win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli FC Dubai 51%, draw 25%, Al Wahda 24%. The final score 5-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahli FC Dubai), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahli FC Dubai) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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