Chapecoense 1-0 Avai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
34%
2.83
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.44
Over 2.5
31%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.19
No
63%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2.02
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
14%
6.48
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
21%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.0pp
34%
Draw
32%
+1.9pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-2.8pp
69%
Under 2.5
66%
+3.2pp
31%
Over 2.5
34%
-3.2pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.6pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Avai EU Bookmakers 34%
-14% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -7%
1.17/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.15
-29% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
22.7 Crosses 17.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Avai
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.14 xG 0.49
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
261 Passes 318
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
09.06.2024 Avai Avai 0-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
27.08.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BR2
13.05.2023 Avai Avai 1-4 HT 0-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
14.01.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BRCAT1
27.01.2022 Avai Avai 0-1 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BRCAT1
26.05.2021 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-1 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BRCAT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
1-0
AWAY Avai
0.49 xG 1.36
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
221 Passes 377
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Avai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense nicked a narrow win over Avai 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 34% / 28%) promised a tight game; Chapecoense found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Chapecoense had 38% of the ball to Avai's 62%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.49 to 1.36 — on chances, Avai could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chapecoense had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Chapecoense and 0.33 for Avai.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Avai?

Chapecoense 1-0 Avai in the Brazil - Serie B on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Avai?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chapecoense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 38%, draw 34%, Avai 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chapecoense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chapecoense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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