Ituano 0-1 Coritiba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
36%
2.51
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.71
6+ Goals
10%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.51 — our 36% vs market 33.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.1pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.6pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.5pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ituano EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Coritiba EU Bookmakers 36%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -27%
1.13/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.23
+2% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
293 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 79%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
21.9 Crosses 16.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ituano
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Coritiba
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
1.03 xG 2.32
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 11
4 Corners 6
434 Passes 275
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 30
20 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.06.2024 Coritiba Coritiba 4-2 HT 3-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ituano
0-1
AWAY Coritiba
1.47 xG 0.38
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 5
294 Passes 324
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ituano vs Coritiba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coritiba edged past Ituano 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Coritiba found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ituano had 49% of the ball to Coritiba's 51%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.47 to 0.38 — on chances, Ituano could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Ituano vs Coritiba?

Ituano 0-1 Coritiba in the Brazil - Serie B on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ituano vs Coritiba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ituano win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Ituano 37%, draw 30%, Coritiba 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ituano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ituano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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