Coritiba 4-2 Ituano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 8 Jun 2024

📅08/06/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.64
Over 2.5
36%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.27
No
63%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.47
6+ Goals
8%
23.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 35% vs market 31.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-8.3pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.0pp
64%
Under 2.5
57%
+6.7pp
36%
Over 2.5
43%
-6.7pp
37%
BTTS Yes
40%
-2.5pp
63%
BTTS No
60%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Coritiba EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Ituano EU Bookmakers 18%
+8% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.53/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.49
-6% / +91% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
347 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
23.0 Crosses 15.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Coritiba
4-2
AWAY Ituano
2.32 xG 1.03
40% Ball Possession 60%
22 Total Shots 16
11 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
275 Passes 434
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
30 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Coritiba vs Ituano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coritiba saw off Ituano 4-2. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Coritiba as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Coritiba had 40% of the ball to Ituano's 60%, shots finished 22-16, expected goals 2.32 to 1.03.

What was the final score of Coritiba vs Ituano?

Coritiba 4-2 Ituano in the Brazil - Serie B on 08/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Coritiba vs Ituano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Coritiba win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Coritiba 53%, draw 27%, Ituano 20%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Coritiba) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Coritiba) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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