Novorizontino 3-1 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 8 Jun 2024

📅08/06/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.08
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
34%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.48
Over 2.5
33%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.22
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
14%
5.57
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.22 — our 40% vs market 38.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
29%
+6.1pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.4pp
34%
Away Win
41%
-6.5pp
67%
Under 2.5
64%
+2.7pp
33%
Over 2.5
36%
-2.7pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.7pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 45%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+53% / +95% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
317 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 80%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.4 Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novorizontino
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Santos
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.08 xG 1.17
38% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
241 Passes 419
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.02.2022 Santos Santos 2-2 HT 1-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPAU
24.04.2021 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BREPAU
26.07.2020 Novorizontino Novorizontino 3-2 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BREPAU
16.03.2019 Santos Santos 0-1 HT 0-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPAU
08.03.2018 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-1 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BREPAU
30.03.2017 Santos Santos 3-1 HT 1-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novorizontino
3-1
AWAY Santos
2.35 xG 1.54
32% Ball Possession 68%
15 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 1
197 Passes 554
67% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Novorizontino vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino got the better of Santos 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 31% / 34% — and on the day Novorizontino made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novorizontino had 32% of the ball to Santos's 68%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 2.35 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Novorizontino had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Novorizontino and 1.33 for Santos.

What was the final score of Novorizontino vs Santos?

Novorizontino 3-1 Santos in the Brazil - Serie B on 08/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novorizontino vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novorizontino win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Novorizontino 35%, draw 31%, Santos 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novorizontino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Novorizontino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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