Tlaxcala 2-3 CD Tapatio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
32%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+0.9pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.4pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+3.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.3pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tlaxcala EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Tapatio EU Bookmakers 40%
-14% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
0.73/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/1.12
-44% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +71% / +9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
256 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tlaxcala
0W-3D-3L
AWAY CD Tapatio
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
7 Corners 3
13.03.2024 Tlaxcala 0-3 HT 0-2 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
25.08.2023 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 2-0 HT 1-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
07.05.2023 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 1-1 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
04.05.2023 Tlaxcala 2-2 HT 0-1 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
22.02.2023 Tlaxcala 1-2 HT 0-0 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
09.09.2022 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 1-1 HT 0-1 Tlaxcala MEK2
POST-MATCH Tlaxcala vs CD Tapatio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Tapatio nicked a narrow win over Tlaxcala 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 40%) promised a tight game; CD Tapatio found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CD Tapatio led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tlaxcala and 1.83 for CD Tapatio.

What was the final score of Tlaxcala vs CD Tapatio?

Tlaxcala 2-3 CD Tapatio in the Mexico - Primera A on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tlaxcala vs CD Tapatio?

Before kick-off our model rated an CD Tapatio win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tlaxcala 37%, draw 24%, CD Tapatio 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CD Tapatio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CD Tapatio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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