Nafta 0-3 Maribor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.91
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
52%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.67
2-3 Goals
38%
1.91
4-5 Goals
28%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
7.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
22%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
25%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
14%
+11.4pp
23%
Draw
19%
+3.6pp
52%
Away Win
67%
-14.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+1.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nafta EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Maribor EU Bookmakers 71%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -22%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -16%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
246 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 429 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nafta
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Maribor
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
70% Ball Possession 30%
20 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 2
16.01.2024 Maribor Maribor 0-3 HT 0-1 Nafta Nafta HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nafta
0-3
AWAY Maribor
37% Ball Possession 63%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nafta vs Maribor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maribor cruised past Nafta 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Maribor as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Nafta had 37% of the ball to Maribor's 63%, shots finished 15-10.

What was the final score of Nafta vs Maribor?

Nafta 0-3 Maribor in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nafta vs Maribor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Nafta 25%, draw 23%, Maribor 52%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maribor), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maribor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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