Ümraniyespor 5-2 Adanaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.29
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 28% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.05
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.4
X/1
19%
3.7
X/2
8%
10.4
X/X
8%
5.29
2/1
9%
23.6
2/2
9%
8.47
2/X
8%
17.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-4.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Adanaspor EU Bookmakers 21%
-5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
1.51/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.48
-11% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
343 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
22.6 Crosses 13.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ümraniyespor
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Adanaspor
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.55 xG 0.88
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
337 Passes 310
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-0 HT 0-0 Adanaspor Adanaspor T1L
29.10.2023 Adanaspor Adanaspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
17.02.2022 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-1 HT 2-0 Adanaspor Adanaspor T1L
19.09.2021 Adanaspor Adanaspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
25.04.2021 Adanaspor Adanaspor 0-2 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
20.12.2020 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-0 HT 0-0 Adanaspor Adanaspor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ümraniyespor
5-2
AWAY Adanaspor
3.18 xG 1.25
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
373 Passes 285
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ümraniyespor vs Adanaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ümraniyespor ran out comfortable winners over Adanaspor 5-2. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ümraniyespor as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Ümraniyespor had 55% of the ball to Adanaspor's 45%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 3.18 to 1.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ümraniyespor had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ümraniyespor and 0.33 for Adanaspor.

What was the final score of Ümraniyespor vs Adanaspor?

Ümraniyespor 5-2 Adanaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ümraniyespor vs Adanaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ümraniyespor win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Ümraniyespor 54%, draw 23%, Adanaspor 23%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ümraniyespor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ümraniyespor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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