Santos 1-0 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 22 Sep 2025

Santos
1-0 HT 0-0
Sao Paulo
📅22/09/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Santos vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
37%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.52
Over 2.5
44%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.22
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
5.03
6+ Goals
9%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.23
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.95
X/1
8%
4.64
X/2
17%
6.43
X/X
10%
3.67
2/1
8%
32.0
2/2
14%
5.3
2/X
8%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-5.1pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.7pp
37%
Away Win
28%
+8.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.9pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Santos v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +14%
1.34/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.08
-9% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +9%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
322 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 82%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
22.3 Crosses 17.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6

Santos vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.10 xG 1.83
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
217 Passes 439
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
20.04.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 2-1 Santos Santos BR1
13.11.2023 Santos Santos 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
16.07.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 4-1 HT 2-0 Santos Santos BR1
13.02.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-1 HT 2-0 Santos Santos BREPAU
22.08.2022 Santos Santos 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
03.05.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 1-1 Santos Santos BR1

Santos 1-0 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
1-0
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.68 xG 0.28
44% Ball Possession 56%
19 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
287 Passes 396
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Santos vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos nicked a narrow win over Sao Paulo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Santos found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Santos had 44% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 56%, shots finished 19-4, expected goals 1.68 to 0.28 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Santos's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Santos and 1.83 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Santos vs Sao Paulo?

Santos 1-0 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 22/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Santos 37%, draw 26%, Sao Paulo 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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