Sao Paulo 2-1 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 20 Apr 2025

Sao Paulo
2-1 HT 2-1
Santos
📅20/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Sao Paulo vs Santos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.19
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.13
No
60%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.21
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
16%
5.97
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.37
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.25
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
4.79
X/2
9%
6.65
X/X
15%
3.51
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
10%
5.58
2/X
7%
14.95
Value flag · X/1 at 4.79 — our 23% vs market 16.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+3.2pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.5pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-0.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.4pp
60%
BTTS No
57%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sao Paulo v Santos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 31%
+6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -3%
1.40/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.22
+12% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 81%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
21.8 Crosses 18.7
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Sao Paulo vs Santos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Santos
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.62 xG 0.97
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
467 Passes 205
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.11.2023 Santos Santos 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
16.07.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 4-1 HT 2-0 Santos Santos BR1
13.02.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-1 HT 2-0 Santos Santos BREPAU
22.08.2022 Santos Santos 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
03.05.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 1-1 Santos Santos BR1
21.02.2022 Santos Santos 0-3 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BREPAU

Sao Paulo 2-1 Santos — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
2-1
AWAY Santos
1.69 xG 1.43
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
256 Passes 381
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 25
7 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo edged past Santos 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 41% of the ball to Santos's 59%, shots finished 6-15, expected goals 1.69 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.67 for Santos.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Santos?

Sao Paulo 2-1 Santos in the Brazil - Serie A on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 45%, draw 29%, Santos 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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