Atletico Mineiro 1-0 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.67
Over 2.5
37%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
37%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
17%
4.38
6+ Goals
7%
21.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 37% vs market 30.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.16
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
10%
13.55
X/1
14%
4.88
X/2
10%
6.71
X/X
13%
4.21
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
17%
5.17
2/X
5%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-5.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.3pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+6.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.2pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.3pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
1.33/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.39
-5% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
308 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 79%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
22.6 Crosses 16.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Botafogo
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.85 xG 1.29
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
363 Passes 322
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-3 HT 0-2 Botafogo Botafogo LKU
21.11.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
08.07.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 3-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
17.09.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
08.05.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
08.11.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-2 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1-0
AWAY Botafogo
0.81 xG 0.27
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
342 Passes 272
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro squeezed past Botafogo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Atletico Mineiro found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 55% of the ball to Botafogo's 45%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 0.81 to 0.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.67 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo?

Atletico Mineiro 1-0 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 37%, draw 28%, Botafogo 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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