Atletico Mineiro 1-3 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 30 Nov 2024

Atletico Mineiro
1-3 HT 0-2
Botafogo
📅30/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2024

Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.75
Draw
22%
3.11
Away
44%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.51
Over 2.5
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.16
No
61%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
5.5
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
21%
7.07
1/2
4%
32.0
1/X
4%
16.15
X/1
8%
8.03
X/2
20%
4.04
X/X
10%
3.76
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.71
2/X
8%
15.25
Value flag · 1/1 at 7.07 — our 21% vs market 10.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
23%
+11.2pp
22%
Draw
29%
-6.8pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-4.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.0pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Mineiro v Botafogo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 52%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
307 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
– Crosses 10.0
– Yellow Cards 3.0

Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Botafogo
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.84 xG 1.14
50% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
354 Passes 344
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.11.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
08.07.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 3-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
17.09.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
08.05.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
08.11.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-2 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
18.07.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1

Atletico Mineiro 1-3 Botafogo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1-3
AWAY Botafogo
1.76 xG 1.81
80% Ball Possession 20%
22 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 0
485 Passes 80
89% Pass Accuracy 57%
29 Box Touches 12
34 Crosses 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo saw off Atletico Mineiro 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 80% of the ball to Botafogo's 20%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 1.76 to 1.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.17 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo?

Atletico Mineiro 1-3 Botafogo in the Copa Libertadores on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 34%, draw 22%, Botafogo 44%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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