Cruzeiro 2-1 Bragantino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 22 Sep 2025

📅22/09/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.49
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
14%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.99
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
15.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 28% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.85
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.8
X/1
24%
3.76
X/2
5%
12.25
X/X
10%
5.25
2/1
7%
24.5
2/2
5%
10.9
2/X
5%
19.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
63%
+2.0pp
21%
Draw
22%
-1.3pp
14%
Away Win
15%
-0.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.2pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Bragantino EU Bookmakers 18%
-9% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -9%
1.65/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.79
+0% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -24%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
375 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
24.1 Crosses 16.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Bragantino
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
1.39 xG 1.22
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 5
391 Passes 256
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.04.2025 Bragantino 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
02.12.2024 Bragantino 1-1 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
13.07.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-1 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
04.09.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
30.04.2023 Bragantino 0-3 HT 0-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
2-1
AWAY Bragantino
0.63 xG 0.81
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
388 Passes 231
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 10
27 Crosses 15
6 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Bragantino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro edged past Bragantino 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cruzeiro as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 60% of the ball to Bragantino's 40%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 0.63 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.60 for Bragantino.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Bragantino?

Cruzeiro 2-1 Bragantino in the Brazil - Serie A on 22/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Bragantino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 65%, draw 21%, Bragantino 14%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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