Bragantino 1-0 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.88
No
59%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
18%
4.42
6+ Goals
7%
22.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 35% vs market 30.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.15
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.55
X/1
13%
4.87
X/2
7%
6.75
X/X
11%
4.18
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
19%
5.23
2/X
6%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.4pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.6pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.3pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bragantino EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +19%
1.24/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.19
+10% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +98%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
283 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 80%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
22.0 Crosses 17.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bragantino
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.04 xG 1.57
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 9
250 Passes 388
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2024 Bragantino 1-1 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
13.07.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-1 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
04.09.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
30.04.2023 Bragantino 0-3 HT 0-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bragantino
1-0
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.75 xG 0.87
42% Ball Possession 58%
20 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
277 Passes 400
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
35 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bragantino vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bragantino nicked a narrow win over Cruzeiro 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bragantino as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bragantino had 42% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 58%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 1.75 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bragantino and 1.50 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Bragantino vs Cruzeiro?

Bragantino 1-0 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 42%, draw 26%, Cruzeiro 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bragantino), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bragantino) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
21 Apr 2025
00:30 Fortaleza vs Palmeiras Analysis →
00:30 Fluminense vs Vitoria Analysis →