Fortaleza 1-2 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.5
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
44%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.59
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals
19%
4.8
6+ Goals
8%
26.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 37% vs market 33.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.5
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
9%
15.0
X/1
8%
7.81
X/2
19%
4.51
X/X
14%
3.98
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
18%
2.79
2/X
5%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+2.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
44%
Away Win
46%
-2.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.6pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 50%
+20% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
0.91/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.11
+6% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +26%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
315 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 81%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
14.3 Crosses 22.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Palmeiras
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.35 xG 1.63
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
257 Passes 383
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-2 HT 1-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
27.06.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-0 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
27.11.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 2-2 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
22.07.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-1 HT 1-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
01.06.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BRK
18.05.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-0 HT 2-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
1-2
AWAY Palmeiras
1.22 xG 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
312 Passes 291
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 9
24 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras edged past Fortaleza 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortaleza had 52% of the ball to Palmeiras's 48%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.22 to 1.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fortaleza and 1.67 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Palmeiras?

Fortaleza 1-2 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 27%, draw 29%, Palmeiras 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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