Birmingham 2-0 Bolton Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 22 Oct 2024

Birmingham
2-0 HT 1-0
Bolton Wanderers
📅22/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Birmingham vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.75
Draw
32%
3.54
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.77
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.23
6+ Goals
12%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 31% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.26
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
17%
4.2
X/2
10%
9.13
X/X
16%
5.12
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
11%
6.75
2/X
9%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
53%
-12.5pp
32%
Draw
25%
+6.7pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+8.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-8.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Birmingham v Bolton Wanderers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 25%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.92/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.23
+30% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
281 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 65%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
26.0 Crosses 15.7
3.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Birmingham vs Bolton Wanderers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.31 xG 0.62
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
238 Passes 268
66% Pass Accuracy 68%
19 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.02.2019 Birmingham Birmingham 0-1 HT 0-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İNCL
22.08.2018 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
03.04.2018 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 0-1 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
15.08.2017 Birmingham Birmingham 0-0 HT 0-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İNCL
23.02.2016 Birmingham Birmingham 1-0 HT 1-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İNCL
20.10.2015 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 0-1 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL

Birmingham 2-0 Bolton Wanderers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
2-0
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
1.54 xG 0.66
71% Ball Possession 29%
18 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
528 Passes 164
87% Pass Accuracy 66%
35 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Bolton Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham beat Bolton Wanderers 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Birmingham had 71% of the ball to Bolton Wanderers's 29%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.54 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Birmingham and 0.33 for Bolton Wanderers.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Bolton Wanderers?

Birmingham 2-0 Bolton Wanderers in the England - 1st Division on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Bolton Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 41%, draw 32%, Bolton Wanderers 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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