Defensor Sporting 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Result, Stats & Model Review (Uruguay - Premier League, 22 Oct 2024)

Defensor Sporting

2-1 HT 2-0

Liverpool FC (Montevideo)

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗

Uruguay - Premier League – 2024

Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

38%

2.12

Draw

27%

3.28

Away

35%

3.02

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57%

1.8

Over 2.5

43%

1.91

Both Teams to Score

Yes

46%

1.76

54%

1.95

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

32%

2-3 Goals

39%

4-5 Goals

20%

6+ Goals

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

20%

1/2

1/X

X/1

11%

X/2

17%

X/X

12%

2/1

2/2

11%

2/X

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

✋

Decision

No Bet — Skip This Match

The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.

💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

38%

Home Win

43%

-4.8pp

27%

Draw

27%

-0.2pp

35%

Away Win

30%

+5.1pp

57%

Under 2.5

52%

+5.7pp

43%

Over 2.5

48%

-5.7pp

46%

BTTS Yes

53%

-6.9pp

54%

BTTS No

47%

+6.9pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Defensor Sporting v Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 47%

Head to Head

AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 33%

-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%

1.42/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.00

+13% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +19%

51% Ball Possession 49%

13 Total Shots 10

5 Shots on Target 4

5 Corners 4

253 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 74%

– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –

– Crosses –

2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0

Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Defensor Sporting

1W-2D-3L

AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)

1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17

50% Ball Possession 50%

11 Total Shots 12

5 Shots on Target 5

6 Corners 6

4 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

19.04.2024 Liverpool FC (Montevideo)

1-1 HT 0-1

Defensor Sporting URU

01.02.2024 Liverpool FC (Montevideo)

1-0 HT 0-0

Defensor Sporting URUSK

18.10.2023 Liverpool FC (Montevideo)

2-0 HT 1-0

Defensor Sporting URU

30.07.2023 Defensor Sporting

0-1 HT 0-0

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU

14.03.2023 Defensor Sporting

2-2 HT 1-2

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU

04.10.2022 Defensor Sporting

3-0 HT 2-0

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URUK

Defensor Sporting 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Defensor Sporting

2-1

AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)

51% Ball Possession 49%

12 Total Shots 13

8 Shots on Target 6

6 Corners 5

1 Yellow Cards 3

POST-MATCH Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensor Sporting edged past Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Defensor Sporting made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Defensor Sporting had 51% of the ball to Liverpool FC (Montevideo)'s 49%, shots finished 12-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Defensor Sporting and 1.17 for Liverpool FC (Montevideo).

What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Defensor Sporting 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) in the Uruguay - Premier League on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 38%, draw 27%, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensor Sporting) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Defensor Sporting) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No

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