Etoile Carouge 2-2 Bellinzona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 22 Nov 2024

📅22/11/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.86
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.11
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
3.84
6+ Goals
9%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 31% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
50%
-7.5pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.0pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Etoile Carouge EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 28%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +19%
2.30/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.55
+11% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
19.5 Crosses 15.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Etoile Carouge
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Bellinzona
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.89 xG 0.88
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
483 Passes 282
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 11
11 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
03.08.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-1 HT 1-0 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV2
06.03.2022 Bellinzona Bellinzona 4-1 HT 1-0 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV1Y
11.09.2021 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 2-4 HT 1-3 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV1Y
19.09.2020 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-3 HT 0-3 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV1Y
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Etoile Carouge
2-2
AWAY Bellinzona
2.34 xG 0.83
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 0
483 Passes 270
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 14
9 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Etoile Carouge vs Bellinzona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Etoile Carouge and Bellinzona couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Etoile Carouge at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Etoile Carouge had 62% of the ball to Bellinzona's 38%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 2.34 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Bellinzona led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Etoile Carouge and 2.50 for Bellinzona.

What was the final score of Etoile Carouge vs Bellinzona?

Etoile Carouge 2-2 Bellinzona in the Switzerland Challenge League on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Etoile Carouge vs Bellinzona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Etoile Carouge win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Etoile Carouge 42%, draw 31%, Bellinzona 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Etoile Carouge) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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