Neuchatel Xamax 2-3 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 22 Nov 2024

📅22/11/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.18
Over 2.5
45%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.55
No
53%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.99
6+ Goals
10%
8.98
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.4 — our 27% vs market 18.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.1pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
38%
Away Win
43%
-4.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
42%
+12.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
58%
-12.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.0pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neuchatel Xamax EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun EU Bookmakers 46%
+6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -6%
1.62/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.70
+22% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +26%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
312 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
20.4 Crosses 16.9
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neuchatel Xamax
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Thun
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.55 xG 1.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
295 Passes 412
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2024 Thun Thun 1-0 HT 0-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
06.04.2024 Thun Thun 4-0 HT 0-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
23.02.2024 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 4-0 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV2
07.10.2023 Thun Thun 1-1 HT 1-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
11.08.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 4-0 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV2
28.04.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 1-1 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Neuchatel Xamax
2-3
AWAY Thun
1.70 xG 2.89
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
343 Passes 307
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 37
16 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Neuchatel Xamax vs Thun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thun squeezed past Neuchatel Xamax 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; Thun found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Neuchatel Xamax had 52% of the ball to Thun's 48%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.70 to 2.89.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Neuchatel Xamax and 1.17 for Thun.

What was the final score of Neuchatel Xamax vs Thun?

Neuchatel Xamax 2-3 Thun in the Switzerland Challenge League on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neuchatel Xamax vs Thun?

Before kick-off our model rated an Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Neuchatel Xamax 34%, draw 28%, Thun 38%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Thun) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Thun) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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