Thun 4-0 Neuchatel Xamax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.0
Over 2.5
44%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.66
No
55%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.76
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 29% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.0pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
46%
+9.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
54%
-9.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.2pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Thun EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -3%
2.16/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.07
-11% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
388 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
19.3 Crosses 23.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Thun
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.29 xG 2.23
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
414 Passes 296
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 24
25 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.02.2024 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 4-0 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV2
07.10.2023 Thun Thun 1-1 HT 1-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
11.08.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 4-0 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV2
28.04.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 1-1 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV2
05.02.2023 Thun Thun 1-0 HT 0-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
28.10.2022 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 2-2 HT 0-1 Thun Thun İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Thun
4-0
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax
2.24 xG 0.36
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
480 Passes 325
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 8
9 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Thun vs Neuchatel Xamax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thun cruised past Neuchatel Xamax 4-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Thun as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Thun had 57% of the ball to Neuchatel Xamax's 43%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.24 to 0.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neuchatel Xamax led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Thun and 2.00 for Neuchatel Xamax.

What was the final score of Thun vs Neuchatel Xamax?

Thun 4-0 Neuchatel Xamax in the Switzerland Challenge League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Thun vs Neuchatel Xamax?

Before kick-off our model rated a Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Thun 48%, draw 25%, Neuchatel Xamax 27%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Thun), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Thun) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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