Paderborn 3-2 Nürnberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 22 Nov 2024

📅22/11/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.67
2-3 Goals
38%
1.93
4-5 Goals
27%
2.91
6+ Goals
13%
8.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.56
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1
12%
4.72
X/2
10%
7.85
X/X
9%
5.61
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.1
2/2
13%
5.21
2/X
9%
13.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.1pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 30%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +20%
1.84/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.63
+13% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
338 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 74%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
19.4 Crosses 16.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Nürnberg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.71 xG 1.44
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
392 Passes 292
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.04.2024 Nürnberg Nürnberg 0-2 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
11.11.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 1-3 HT 0-3 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
28.05.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 0-1 HT 0-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
13.11.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-1 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
15.01.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-2 HT 0-2 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
30.07.2021 Paderborn Paderborn 2-2 HT 1-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
3-2
AWAY Nürnberg
3.33 xG 1.30
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
289 Passes 465
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Nürnberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn edged past Nürnberg 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Paderborn as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Paderborn had 40% of the ball to Nürnberg's 60%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 3.33 to 1.30 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paderborn's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nürnberg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Paderborn and 1.50 for Nürnberg.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Nürnberg?

Paderborn 3-2 Nürnberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Nürnberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 46%, draw 26%, Nürnberg 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paderborn), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paderborn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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