Independiente Rivadavia 2-1 River Plate — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 22 Nov 2024

📅22/11/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
5.91
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
45%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.29
No
57%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.78
2-3 Goals
35%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
4.29
6+ Goals
10%
21.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 35% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
11%
12.65
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
6%
20.9
X/1
9%
13.8
X/2
13%
3.42
X/X
16%
4.95
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
1.87
2/X
7%
19.45
Value flag · 1/1 at 12.65 — our 11% vs market 4.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
14%
+12.4pp
29%
Draw
23%
+6.1pp
45%
Away Win
64%
-18.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.1pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Rivadavia EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY River Plate EU Bookmakers 69%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -8%
0.92/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.10
-61% / +110% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +6%
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
221 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 81%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
15.8 Crosses 18.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Rivadavia
0W-0D-1L
AWAY River Plate
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.98 xG 2.08
35% Ball Possession 65%
13 Total Shots 21
8 Shots on Target 12
8 Corners 3
267 Passes 568
78% Pass Accuracy 88%
7 Box Touches 35
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
07.03.2024 River Plate River Plate 2-0 HT 2-0 Independiente Rivadavia Independiente Rivadavia ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Rivadavia
2-1
AWAY River Plate
1.56 xG 2.36
31% Ball Possession 69%
25 Total Shots 16
12 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
149 Passes 429
64% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Independiente Rivadavia vs River Plate
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Rivadavia squeezed past River Plate 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was River Plate at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Rivadavia had 31% of the ball to River Plate's 69%, shots finished 25-16, expected goals 1.56 to 2.36 — the balance of chances actually favoured River Plate.

What was the final score of Independiente Rivadavia vs River Plate?

Independiente Rivadavia 2-1 River Plate in the Argentina - Premier League on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Rivadavia vs River Plate?

Before kick-off our model rated an River Plate win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Independiente Rivadavia 26%, draw 29%, River Plate 45%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (River Plate) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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