Independiente 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 22 Nov 2024

📅22/11/2024 · 🕒01:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.45
Over 2.5
35%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.29
No
62%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
42%
2.14
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
13%
6.05
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.14 — our 42% vs market 40.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.68
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.1
X/1
15%
3.91
X/2
11%
8.18
X/X
16%
3.63
2/1
7%
33.5
2/2
13%
7.46
2/X
6%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-6.9pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.0pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.9pp
65%
Under 2.5
65%
+0.3pp
35%
Over 2.5
35%
-0.3pp
38%
BTTS Yes
40%
-2.1pp
62%
BTTS No
60%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata EU Bookmakers 24%
-10% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +9%
1.30/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.31
-11% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +1%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 69%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
21.2 Crosses 18.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.92 xG 0.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
338 Passes 230
74% Pass Accuracy 68%
19 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.02.2024 Independiente Independiente 0-1 HT 0-1 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
02.09.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
08.07.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
04.09.2022 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 3-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
12.10.2021 Independiente Independiente 1-1 HT 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
28.02.2021 Independiente Independiente 1-0 HT 0-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente
1-0
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.60 xG 0.09
47% Ball Possession 53%
25 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
205 Passes 233
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
29 Box Touches 8
16 Crosses 11
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Independiente vs Gimnasia La Plata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente nicked a narrow win over Gimnasia La Plata 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Independiente as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, Independiente had 47% of the ball to Gimnasia La Plata's 53%, shots finished 25-4, expected goals 1.60 to 0.09 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Independiente and 1.17 for Gimnasia La Plata.

What was the final score of Independiente vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Independiente 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata in the Argentina - Premier League on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Independiente 43%, draw 29%, Gimnasia La Plata 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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