Monaco 3-2 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 22 Nov 2024

Monaco
3-2 HT 2-0
Brest
📅22/11/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.63
2-3 Goals
36%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.39
6+ Goals
11%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 29% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.99
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.15
X/1
16%
3.8
X/2
11%
11.4
X/X
9%
5.51
2/1
8%
23.4
2/2
8%
9.07
2/X
9%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-8.1pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.7pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.2pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monaco EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.70/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.81
+1% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +17%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
458 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
18.9 Crosses 17.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monaco
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Brest
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.36 xG 1.08
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
374 Passes 318
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 Brest Brest 0-2 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
05.11.2023 Monaco Monaco 2-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
19.02.2023 Brest Brest 1-2 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
01.01.2023 Monaco Monaco 1-0 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
14.05.2022 Monaco Monaco 4-2 HT 1-2 Brest Brest FR1
31.10.2021 Brest Brest 2-0 HT 1-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monaco
3-2
AWAY Brest
2.70 xG 1.04
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
395 Passes 343
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monaco vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monaco edged past Brest 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Monaco as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Monaco had 52% of the ball to Brest's 48%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 2.70 to 1.04 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Monaco's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monaco had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Monaco and 0.83 for Brest.

What was the final score of Monaco vs Brest?

Monaco 3-2 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 22/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monaco vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Monaco 51%, draw 24%, Brest 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monaco) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monaco) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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