Almeria 1-1 Cadiz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 22 Dec 2024

📅22/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.44
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.28
6+ Goals
12%
12.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.09
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.55
X/1
16%
3.89
X/2
7%
10.4
X/X
8%
5.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
23.4
2/2
10%
8.18
2/X
8%
16.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.4 — our 12% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-3.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+3.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Cadiz EU Bookmakers 22%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +0%
1.86/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.60
+30% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +26%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
385 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 73%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
17.3 Crosses 17.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Cadiz
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.96 xG 1.16
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
336 Passes 280
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2024 Almeria Almeria 6-1 HT 0-1 Cadiz Cadiz İS1
26.08.2023 Cadiz Cadiz 1-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS1
18.03.2023 Almeria Almeria 1-1 HT 0-0 Cadiz Cadiz İS1
30.12.2022 Cadiz Cadiz 1-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS1
09.09.2020 Cadiz Cadiz 1-1 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria HAZ
29.02.2020 Cadiz Cadiz 2-1 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
1-1
AWAY Cadiz
1.84 xG 0.96
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 0
480 Passes 256
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 4
33 Crosses 1
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Cadiz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria and Cadiz couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Almeria at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Almeria had 64% of the ball to Cadiz's 36%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 1.84 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Almeria and 1.17 for Cadiz.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Cadiz?

Almeria 1-1 Cadiz in the Spain - 2nd Division on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Cadiz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Almeria 53%, draw 25%, Cadiz 22%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Almeria) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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