Almeria 6-1 Cadiz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
37%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.61
No
53%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.92
2-3 Goals
44%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.16
6+ Goals
8%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 27% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
23%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
46%
-9.6pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+7.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.5pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Cadiz EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +31% / +31%
1.42/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/1.14
-12% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 77%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
19.5 Crosses 21.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Cadiz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.55 xG 1.26
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
331 Passes 219
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Cadiz Cadiz 1-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS1
18.03.2023 Almeria Almeria 1-1 HT 0-0 Cadiz Cadiz İS1
30.12.2022 Cadiz Cadiz 1-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS1
09.09.2020 Cadiz Cadiz 1-1 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria HAZ
29.02.2020 Cadiz Cadiz 2-1 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
29.09.2019 Almeria Almeria 1-2 HT 0-0 Cadiz Cadiz İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
6-1
AWAY Cadiz
3.16 xG 0.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
27 Total Shots 12
12 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 4
371 Passes 441
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
31 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Cadiz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria cruised past Cadiz 6-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Almeria found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Almeria had 46% of the ball to Cadiz's 54%, shots finished 27-12, expected goals 3.16 to 0.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cadiz led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Almeria and 1.33 for Cadiz.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Cadiz?

Almeria 6-1 Cadiz in the Spain - Primera Liga on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Cadiz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cadiz win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Almeria 36%, draw 27%, Cadiz 37%. The final score 6-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cadiz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
25 May 2024
15:00 Osasuna vs Villarreal Analysis →
17:15 Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Analysis →
19:30 Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao Analysis →
22:00 Real Madrid vs Real Betis Analysis →