Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 25 May 2024

Rayo Vallecano
0-1 HT 0-0
Athletic Bilbao
📅25/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.84
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
29%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.71
Over 2.5
36%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.82
No
59%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
37%
2.83
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.12
6+ Goals
9%
19.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 37% vs market 29.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
31%
+9.6pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.6pp
29%
Away Win
40%
-11.2pp
64%
Under 2.5
55%
+9.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
45%
-9.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.8pp
59%
BTTS No
49%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 45%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -3%
1.29/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.27
+2% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
319 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
24.0 Crosses 20.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.14 xG 1.33
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
356 Passes 257
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 23
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 4-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
05.03.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
17.09.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 3-2 HT 3-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
23.01.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
21.09.2021 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-2 HT 1-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
14.04.2019 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 3-2 HT 1-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1

Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
0-1
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.06 xG 0.95
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 2
467 Passes 230
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 14
31 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao nicked a narrow win over Rayo Vallecano 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Rayo Vallecano at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 64% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 36%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.06 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 2.00 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?

Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 41%, draw 30%, Athletic Bilbao 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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