Willem II 4-1 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 22 Dec 2024

Willem II
4-1 HT 2-1
NEC Nijmegen
📅22/12/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
22%
3.18
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
26%
3.95
6+ Goals
8%
18.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.3
1/2
10%
28.0
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
13%
6.91
X/2
17%
4.61
X/X
10%
4.26
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.99
2/X
6%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+4.3pp
22%
Draw
28%
-5.9pp
45%
Away Win
44%
+1.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.0pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Willem II v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 48%
-10% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +10%
0.94/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.25
-15% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +70%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
274 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
21.5 Crosses 19.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6

Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
0W-2D-4L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.30 xG 1.28
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
404 Passes 338
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 26
26 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.12.2021 Willem II Willem II 0-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
12.09.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
15.01.2017 Willem II Willem II 0-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
25.09.2016 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
17.01.2016 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-0 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
28.08.2015 Willem II Willem II 0-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL

Willem II 4-1 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
4-1
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
2.09 xG 1.63
39% Ball Possession 61%
15 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
313 Passes 508
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
24 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 32
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II ran out comfortable winners over NEC Nijmegen 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was NEC Nijmegen at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Willem II had 39% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 61%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 2.09 to 1.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Willem II and 0.67 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?

Willem II 4-1 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated an NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Willem II 32%, draw 22%, NEC Nijmegen 45%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NEC Nijmegen), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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