Utrecht 2-5 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 22 Dec 2024

Utrecht
2-5 HT 1-0
Fortuna Sittard
📅22/12/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
25%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.91
Over 2.5
56%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.34
6+ Goals
12%
12.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.34 — our 26% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.92
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
17.35
X/1
21%
3.65
X/2
8%
12.1
X/X
10%
5.62
2/1
7%
23.85
2/2
11%
9.93
2/X
6%
18.25
Value flag · 1/X at 17.35 — our 9% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
62%
-11.6pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.0pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+8.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.3pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Utrecht v Fortuna Sittard — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.83
-15% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
379 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
26.0 Crosses 15.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.30 xG 1.33
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
338 Passes 324
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.02.2024 Utrecht Utrecht 4-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
28.10.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
03.03.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 1-2 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
02.09.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 3-4 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
09.04.2022 Utrecht Utrecht 1-1 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
18.12.2021 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-2 HT 1-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL

Utrecht 2-5 Fortuna Sittard — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht
2-5
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
1.87 xG 1.85
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
396 Passes 268
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard cruised past Utrecht 5-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Utrecht at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Utrecht had 57% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 43%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.87 to 1.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Utrecht and 1.33 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?

Utrecht 2-5 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Utrecht 50%, draw 25%, Fortuna Sittard 25%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Utrecht) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Utrecht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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