Paços De Ferreira 1-3 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 22 Dec 2024

Paços De Ferreira
1-3 HT 1-2
Alverca
📅22/12/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Paços De Ferreira vs Alverca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.66
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.95
6+ Goals
9%
18.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
39%
-4.8pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.3pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+1.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paços De Ferreira v Alverca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 36%
-10% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.40/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.49/1.07
-20% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / +26%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
307 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
26.7 Crosses 17.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0

Paços De Ferreira vs Alverca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paços De Ferreira
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Alverca
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
The Meetings
22.02.2004 Alverca Alverca 2-1 HT 2-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
28.09.2003 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 0-3 HT 0-0 Alverca Alverca POR
20.01.2002 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-2 HT 1-0 Alverca Alverca POR
19.08.2001 Alverca Alverca 1-0 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
20.05.2001 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-2 HT 0-0 Alverca Alverca POR
06.01.2001 Alverca Alverca 2-0 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR

Paços De Ferreira 1-3 Alverca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paços De Ferreira
1-3
AWAY Alverca
1.46 xG 2.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
360 Passes 250
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paços De Ferreira vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca beat Paços De Ferreira 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match split (34% / 32% / 34%) promised a tight game; Alverca found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 55% of the ball to Alverca's 45%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.46 to 2.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alverca led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 2.00 for Alverca.

What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Alverca?

Paços De Ferreira 1-3 Alverca in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paços De Ferreira win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 34%, draw 32%, Alverca 34%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
22 Dec 2024
17:00 UD Oliveirense vs Uniao De Leiria Analysis →
18:30 Torreense vs Penafiel Analysis →
21:00 Benfica II vs Felgueiras 1932 Analysis →