Torreense 0-1 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 22 Dec 2024

📅22/12/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.76
6+ Goals
11%
16.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.0pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.4pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Torreense EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 30%
-6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +10%
1.39/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.29
-23% / +82% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.0 Crosses 17.8
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Torreense
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Penafiel
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.96 xG 1.36
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
367 Passes 391
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.05.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 0-1 Torreense Torreense POR2
15.01.2024 Torreense Torreense 1-0 HT 1-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
21.05.2023 Torreense Torreense 5-1 HT 2-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
14.01.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 0-0 HT 0-0 Torreense Torreense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Torreense
0-1
AWAY Penafiel
1.45 xG 1.32
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 4
267 Passes 98
74% Pass Accuracy 58%
33 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Torreense vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel edged past Torreense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Torreense at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Torreense had 63% of the ball to Penafiel's 37%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 1.45 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Torreense had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Torreense and 0.50 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Torreense vs Penafiel?

Torreense 0-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Torreense vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Torreense win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Torreense 43%, draw 25%, Penafiel 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Torreense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Torreense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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